Poker Psychology

Image and game flow are very important when it comes to high-stakes no-limit hold’em cash games. As we saw, the players who are most able to interpret hand ranges based on these factors are the ones most likely to win at high-stakes as they are able to out-think their opponents. But how does psychology and thinking on multiple levels actually work in high-stakes games where players are constantly adjusting and readjusting to their opponents?

To understand this we need to start by taking a few steps back and thinking how various types of poker players behave and the levels they play on. At the very lowest (level one) are players who simply play their own two cards with no regard for other factors. They may be those with little understanding of the game, or more experienced players who have not developed their hand-reading skills and still think in absolutes such as, ‘I have top pair. Top pair is a good hand. I call!’

At the next level are players who are starting to ask themselves, ‘what do I think my opponent has?’ This might be called first-level thinking and demonstrates an ability to consider hand strengths in relative terms. For example, if a very tight player re-raises you it would be natural to throw away even very good hands in many situations. Similarly, if you reach the river and have only a weak top pair against a tight player who is unlikely to be bluffing, then folding to a big bet would be logical.

KEY POINT

Before making any decision in poker it is crucial you understand what level of thinking your opponent is operating on and react accordingly

OUT-THINKING YOUR OPPONENT

However, even with second-level thinking you are still assuming your opponent plays in a fairly predictable way. And while average players play in a predictable fashion, at higher stakes cash games it certainly won’t be the case. You therefore need to take things one step further to third-level thinking and also ask, ‘What do I think my opponent thinks I have?’

This is where poker starts to become a war of trying to out-level other intelligent players since the ‘I think he thinks I think’ game can be extended to infinity. The goal is to correctly guess what level your opponent is on and stay one step ahead by anticipating and countering his actions.

However, the best players tend to stay out of each other’s way where possible, rather than trying to prove their superiority. And so, it is worth once more taking a step back and starting with some more basic situations that come up between intelligent players. For example, It is important to consider what level thinking-opponents are on using image and game flow as a guide if a player raises under the gun in a six-max cash game and is re-raised, a variety of things could be taking place, assuming they are both thinking players.

Typically, we can assume that the under the gun raiser would have a solid range and that the re-raiser would know this, so the initial raiser would expect the re-raiser to have a very strong hand. However, if the re-raiser knows that the raiser knows this, then it allows him to occasionally adjust by re-raising with speculative hands, as the raiser will typically throw away hands such as A?-J?, A?-7? and 8?-8?.

Similarly, if the same thing happens with the same players on the next hand, then on one level the initial raiser may assume the re-raiser has a strong hand this time as he has just re-raised the previous hand. But if the re-raiser knows the raiser will assume this he can actually quite often re-raise lighter on the next hand and expect to get credit for a real hand.

FOUR-BETTING THINKING

A more interesting situation in pre-flop play is when aggressive players are three and four-betting each other in late position. Three-betting became popular as a response to wider pre-flop opening ranges, and more recently four-betting has become standard as a response to frequent three-betting. However, while most players now understand the rationale behind three-betting, four-betting is still an area that many fail to comprehend from a psychological standpoint.

Many players understand that they are supposed to be four-betting as a response to three-betting, but do it with an overly polarised range which weights their hand ranges towards bluffs. Very intelligent players will therefore out-level these players by five-betting all-in lighter and sometimes with hands like suited connectors. They know their opponents know they are likely to three-bet light, and are able to out-think them by anticipating their four-betting strategy.

By contrast, intelligent players will often de-polarise their four-betting ranges against other intelligent aggressive players so that they are four-betting and calling all-in with a much wider range such as 9-9+, A-Q+. This wider range allows them to more profitably balance the times they are four-bet bluffing. This enables them to avoid being exploited by opponents who might be five-betting light. It also means they will often be in good all-in situations even with marginal hands, since their opponents will sometimes show up with worse hands.

KEY POINT

New areas of common strategy such as increasing four-betting percentages are ripe for exploitation against second level thinkers as these are often the most misunderstood areas of poker strategy

POST-FLOP LEVELS

Pre-flop play is a good area to focus on psychology as it is fairly straightforward from a technical perspective. However, the strongest players also excel at applying levels of thinking in post-flop situations, mostly where decisions are marginal or there is the opportunity for bluffing or value-betting thinly. It is hard to address these situations as they are many and varied, but again we can consider how a straightforward situation can be played differently depending on psychology.

For example, amateur players often use the desperation river-bluff, where they raise and continuation bet having missed the river, check the turn and try to bluff the river. This line makes little sense and first-level players will often be able to pick off bluffs here on this basis. But if an intelligent player knows that this is a terrible spot to bluff, he may try a bluff there for that very reason. An intelligent opponent will reason that he is more likely to be value betting thinly and fold.

Of course, such situations come up all the time and in all areas of poker. The most important thing for aspiring high stakes players to do is to be constantly thinking about what level of thinking opponents are on and use factors such as image and game flow to guide them. This requires experience to perfect, but it will come from practise as long as you constantly force yourself to think about the psychological side of poker rather than playing poker on autopilot.