Poker experts and theorists around the world often talk about a concept known as fold equity and its importance in given situations. The technical definition for fold equity is the equity a poker player gains due to their opponent folding to a bet. The layman’s definition is ‘ do I have enough chips or is my bet big enough to induce my opponent to fold?’
Fold equity most often comes into play in short-stacked situations and many poker players believe that because of fold equity it is best to move all-in with a wide range of hands as opposed to calling with a smaller range of hands. This is because moving all-in gives you two ways to win the pot (your opponent folding or your hand improving) while calling only gives you one way to win (your hand improving).
While I am a big advocate of utilising fold equity in hold’em tournaments, many players overcomplicate it and pass up situations they shouldn’t because they would rather be the initial raiser than the caller. This article is going to show you situations where you should use fold equity in tournament situations and discuss the times where you should ignore fold equity.
First to act
Being first to act is the situation most people think of when it comes to fold equity. One of the concepts embedded into many poker players’ minds is to never let your stack get so small that you no longer have any fold equity. You want to have the ability to induce people to fold, as winning hands uncontested removes the element of luck that exists in poker.
For example, if the blinds are 500/1,000 and the antes are 100 at a nine-handed table, what stack size would have useful fold equity and what stack size would not? Most players will call out of the big blind with any two cards when they are getting 2/1 on their money or better. There are of course exceptions to this; loose players will call with worse odds and tight or bad players may not take pot odds into account at all.
In this case, a stack size of 4,400 will give the big blind 2/1 on his money. The reason players are likely to call when getting 2/1 is that there is no hand that is more than a 2/1 dog against a random hand. Even if you have a hand like Kings or Queens, a hand with an overcard is just slightly more than a 2/1 dog to beat you.
It is vital in fold equity terms that you have a stack size that is big enough to get your opponent to fold. Usually you will need a stack size of at least eight to ten big blinds to open-shove first to act and have fold equity. The range of hands you should shove with depends on the likelihood that your opponent will call. If they will only call with a narrow range then your range should be 100% of hands. If they fold nine times out of ten, you’re passing up too much value by basing whether you raise or not on the strength of your hand. If your opponent is likely to call, your range needs to be smaller and you need to have a hand that will play well against your opponent’s range. I often see people open shoving with any Ace. This is a well-documented mistake, as one of the hands most likely to call you is a bigger Ace.
I would rather shove with a hand like 8-7 than A-5. Say you are called by A-J with both of those hands. The 8-7 would only be a 3/2 dog while the A-5 would be a 2.3/1 dog. The one advantage an Ace has is in situations where it’s called by a big pair and has three outs to a second Ace, but this is not a strong enough factor to make the play viable.
Key point
In order to have any significant fold equity you must usually have at least eight big blinds. Be wary of moving in with any Ace as you will be in very bad shape if called by a bigger Ace.
Punishing limpers
When one or more players have limped into a pot before you, it can present an ideal situation to pick up some chips without much pressure. In fact, if I were looking for a spot to push in my short stack I’d rather do it in a pot where there are two to three limpers than move in first to act. There are more chips in the pot and my opponents have already told me they don’t really like their hand that much. There is always the off chance that someone has limped in with a big pair, but over the long term this play is a profitable one.
Let me use an example to show just how profitable this situation can be. You have 12,000 in chips with the blinds at 500/1,000 and a 100 ante at a nine-handed table. There are three limpers and you are on the button with 8-6. There is 5,400 in the pot. You move all-in for 12,000. Let’s say that two out of ten times you will be called and lose the hand, one out of ten times you will be called and win the hand, and the other seven times everyone folds (this is a pretty realistic approximation at a tight/solid table). Here is how the maths plays out.
LOSE 12,000 x 2 = -24,000
WIN 5,400 x 7 = +37,800
WIN 17,400 x 1 = +17,400
The net return for the ten hands is therefore 31,200 or 3,120 chips per hand, which is over a 25% increase in your stack size. Even if you lost three out of the ten you’d still show a profit.
Key point
Shoving over the top of pre-flop limpers can be a very profitable move with a short stack. There is a small chance someone may be trapping with a big pair but in the long run it is almost certain to be a profitable move.
Post-flop thoughts
Most discussion of fold equity pertains to pre-flop, short-stack decisions. However, a big part of tournament poker is making raises and re-steals post-flop, and fold equity is a huge factor in determining whether the raise or re-steal is a valid play. When considering whether to put in a raise post-flop you must evaluate the same factors as you did pre-flop, except now you have more information to work with. You know what your opponent did pre-flop and you have the flop to help define things more clearly.
A good time to apply fold equity in post-flop decisions is when you have a big draw or believe your opponent is bluffing. Let’s look at an example of having a big draw to show you what I am talking about.
The blinds are 250/500 with a 50 ante. An early-position player raises pre-flop and a middle-position player calls. You call as well from the cut-off with 10-9 and everyone else folds. There is 5,700 in the pot and you have 30,000 in front of you. Your two opponents have 25,000 and 50,000.
The flop comes 8-7-2, giving you an open-ended straight draw plus a flush draw. A monster flop for sure. The pre-flop raiser bets 5,000, leaving himself 20,000. The middle-position player folds. A mistake here would be flat-calling. Say you call and the turn comes with a non-diamond face card. Your opponent now bets all-in and you have to fold. By moving all-in or making a raise on the flop, you avoid this predicament.
Even though you have a huge draw, it’s still just a draw and there is nothing wrong with taking the pot down on the flop. Another problem with calling is that if you do hit your draw on the turn, you might not get paid off. If, however, you shove all-in, receive a call and then hit, you get maximum value from your hand.
Ignoring fold equity
Now, having seen how fold equity works in theory, let’s spend a minute thinking about how it works in practice. In reality many people rely on it too much. A short-stack will move all-in for 10,000 and a player with a 12,000 stack and K-Q will fold because they aren’t first to act. When people get short-stacked they have a natural tendency to panic and they start playing hands they would never dream of playing.
Folding hands like medium pocket pairs and two face cards can be a mistake in these situations. Think about it this way. If you were first to act from the cut-off with a short stack and had K-10 would you fold? No, you wouldn’t. Say you had 12,000 in chips and were first to act from middle position with the blinds at 1,000/2,000. What kind of hand would you need to move all-in here?
The answer is not much. The probability (and believe it or not, poker is largely a game of probability) is that K-10 is either way ahead or in a race situation, which means over the long run this is a largely +EV situation. I know people say that it’s better to raise than to call a raise, but sometimes you just have to ignore fold equity.
Here is an example to illustrate the point. You have 15,000 in chips with the blinds at 1,000/2,000 with a 200 ante. You’ve been waiting patiently for a hand to play. You have lost nearly 10,000 in chips the last two orbits just folding. You are dealt A-9 on the button and are anxious for the action to get to you so that you can move all-in. It is folded to the cut-off who moves all-in for his last 20,000. You instinctively reach for the fold button. But wait! Don’t do it!
Think about it. What is the range of hands your opponent could have? Let’s say he plays similarly to you. What would you move all-in with here? A lot worse than A-9, right? You can fold the hand and keep your tournament life, but it’s not guaranteed that you’re going to get an opportunity to open-shove first to act. Doubling up here could be huge though, as it would put you in position to play some poker.
Key point
Don’t let the concept of fold equity and preserving your tournament life allow you to fold what would clearly be a +EV call. Think about how your hand plays against your opponent’s all-in range.
Summary
Fold equity is an integral part of tournament poker and has a say in many of the decisions players make over the course of a tournament. However, that doesn’t mean it should be the overriding factor in every decision you make. Poker is a dynamic game and each hand is different.
Where folding might be the proper play in one particular hand, calling or raising might be the correct play in a different hand. Don’t forsake other plays simply because fold equity doesn’t exist and when you do use fold equity make sure you understand the proper application. It could be the difference between a small payday and a huge one.
