Bubble Play

Many poker professionals delight in taking advantage of the money bubble. It is commonly accepted that players should get more aggressive as the bubble approaches because, generally speaking, play has tightened as players want to ensure some kind of pay day. The theory goes that this becomes a prime opportunity for the aggressive player to pick up easy chips. You may have read about a professional raising 20 times in a row during the bubble and only getting contested once or twice.

However, more players than ever are opening up their game during the bubble stage. This article is going to look at current bubble dynamics theory, how changes have provoked a shift in these dynamics, and what you can do to adapt your play during this stage of the tournament.

Shifting Bubble Dynamics

You can typically tell when bubble dynamics can be applied by watching the other players in the tournament. In an online tournament, you’ll start to see an abundance of players timing out every hand, creating a tortoise pace for the entire field. In a live tournament, players will start walking around and evaluating chip stacks at other tables and conversation at the table will often go something like: ‘I’m not playing a hand unless it’s a monster.’ Top players are quick to pick up on this shifting dynamic and start to attack relentlessly, targeting the players that are looking solely to make the money.

For example, it’s the main event of the World Series and the player in the big blind has started to focus on the clock and walk around other tables. You have him well covered and he opens from the cut-off on your big blind. You have nothing. Absolutely nothing. You re-raise him enough to ensure that if he is going to play the hand it will likely be for all of his chips.

He shakes his head, takes one last look at the tournament clock to make sure you aren’t in the money yet, and folds his pocket tens face up. This is a perfect example of the type of play top players will employ during the bubble. If they know the money is important to a player, they are going to pounce like a cat on a mouse.

The problem, however, is that more players are recognising this chip making opportunity and the aggression levels during the bubble stages has reached an all-time high. It is not uncommon to see three to four players trying to become table captain, and unless you are willing to take some chances you’re going to find yourself folding repeatedly and watching your chip stack wither away. This is a major problem many players face. You could have been playing perfect poker for the entire tournament, but over the course of a couple hours the excellent position you have put yourself in has vanished.

Adapting Your Bubble Play

Everyone knows that the money in poker tournaments is in making the final table and finishing in the top two to three spots. How you play during the bubble will go a long ways towards putting you in position for this final stretch. You don’t have to become one of the bubble maniacs to maintain or improve your chip position, in fact I would argue that you’re almost better off taking a more cautious, conservative approach. However, this does not mean I advocate folding every hand.

You should be looking for situations where you can accumulate chips with minimal risk. The first key to doing this is identifying the bubble maniacs at your table and noting what their folding tendencies are. Most bubble maniacs are not idiots. They will raise relentlessly but if they face any adverse pressure, they will usually defer to the person testing them. These are the players you should be looking to target. Let’s look at a couple of real life examples to illustrate what I am talking about.

This hand took place during one of the major online Sunday tournaments. We were about 30 spots from the money and I had a stack size of approximately 35 big blinds at 35,000. My opponent in this hand had about 50,000 in front of him and over the course of the last 15 minutes had opened up his aggression level considerably by raising nearly every other time he was first to act. While he could simply have been experiencing a massive card rush, the chances were he was attacking the bubble.

It was working for him as he had quickly increased his chip stack from 40,000 to 50,000. The blinds were 500/1,000/a100 and the action was folded around to the bubble aggressor who opened the pot to 3,000 from late middle position. I was on the button with a less than marginal hand (my cards at this point are truly meaningless, but if you must know it was 7-4 offsuit) and re-raised him to 10,000.

It was folded back to my opponent who now had to face a decision knowing that I had risked a third of my stack and my entire stack would cripple him if he lost the hand. As I expected, he folded and I was able to pick up 5,400 in chips with my well timed re-steal. Yes, there will be times that he has a legitimate hand and will play back at me, but these are chances you need to be willing to take to accumulate chips.

If this play succeeds four times out of five, which it usually will, you’ll make a profit of over 10,000 chips. Compare this to the bubble maniac who open-raises. If they are successful four times out of five they will only make a profit of approximately 7,000 in chips. The selective re-raise is a more profitable play, especially if you can pick out the right opponent and time it properly.

Adapting to others

This hand is somewhat different from the first hand but still relies on many of the same principles. It is during a small buy-in live $ 200 tournament that started with over 700 players. It paid 63 and was down to under 80 players, at which point the play had slowed considerably as players looked to make the money. One player at my table had been particularly aggressive and had the stack to prove it. For the most part, the other players had been relenting to the pressure he had been applying.

The blinds were 400/800/a100 and the bubble maniac opened for 3,000 from middle position. A medium-stack in the small blind looked down at his cards and quickly announced that he was all-in for 15,000 in chips. I looked down and saw A-Q. Normally, I would throw A-Q into the muck in a heartbeat facing a raise and a re-raise. But when I considered that the initial raiser had been very loose and that the small blind knew this, I felt that the range of hands that the small blind would re-shove with could be significantly behind my A-Q.

I had 25,000 in chips, so I’d still be alive if I was wrong or got unlucky (assuming of course that the bubble maniac folds to my all-in). I moved all-in, the bubble maniac folded, and when the small blind shook his head as he started to turn over his cards, I knew that I was ahead. Sure enough, he had A-10 and I was able to pick up 20,000 in chips. Understanding how bubble aggressors affect the play of others is a key concept in playing the bubble properly.

Popping The Bubble

Despite the fact that I talk about attacking bubble aggressors as a viable option, if you have the opportunity to be the bubble aggressor and the entire table is playing ultra-tight, there is no reason for you not to take the lead and start raising at every possible opportunity.

What I was trying to show you with this article, however, was how to adapt your bubble play given that so many people in today’s tournament poker world are attacking the bubble. Re-stealing and playing hands you would normally fold because your opponents have shifted their starting requirements are two of the most valuable plays you can have in your arsenal at this stage of a tournament. The bottom line is to be patient, be aware, be aggressive, and most importantly be smart about the plays you make.

If your opponent never folds to a re-raise after they have raised, then the re-stealing option goes out the window. Don’t just throw your chips in recklessly, hoping your opponent will fold. Put them in knowing there is a high probability they will fold. Do this and you’ll find yourself popping the bubble with more chips than you’ve ever had.