Bubble works

	When players are just shy of reaching the money we find out who is there to win the tournament and who is just there to survive

The term ‘bubble’ actually comes from sports and is loosely interpreted as ‘unfortunate last one out’. In the annual, 65-team college basketball tournament conducted in the US, the 66th team on the selection committee’s list is ‘on the bubble’. In poker, playing on the bubble is a unique and critical time in a tournament and in this article we will analyse how your playing strategy should change.

CHIP POSITION AND BANKROLL

If you discuss playing through the bubble with expert poker player and pro sports handicapper Ted Sevransky, the word ‘bankroll’ comes up frequently. He opines, ‘How you play at bubble time depends entirely upon your relative chip position and your bankroll considerations. If you’re someone that needs to collect cash in the tournament to stay afloat or to give your bankroll a shot in the arm, you’re going to play differently than if you have an ample bankroll and are far more concerned with winning than cashing.’

Ted continues, ‘When I’m well funded and focused on winning, that last level before reaching the money can be my most profitable period in the day. I take chips from the players who get really tight at that time. Their strategy is to go for the money. They know that if they don’t survive, they can’t win. Sure, a player must survive to win, but my objective is to increase my stack size during that period, a time of significantly less risk to me if opponents are folding too many hands. I’ll raise and re-raise with marginal holdings and better. Playing aggressively during the bubble period will enhance your chances of winning the tournament and increase your overall profits.’

STRATEGIES BASED ON STACK SIZE

So how does Ted’s bubble time play alter when he sits behind a short stack? ‘If you have a short stack, the bottom line is still your bankroll objective. If the prizes at the low end of the pool are substantial in relationship to your poker or tournament bankroll, then you might choose to play conservatively. If so, you’ll only play premium hands. You won’t look to push things with marginal holdings. You’ll rely on others going bust before you do. That’s the difference between having a deep bankroll that can stand a few swings versus having one that requires some cashes along the way to keep you rolling.’

REACHING THE MONEY

What changes after the bubble is burst? According to Ted, ‘once you are in the money, your next goal is to calculate how many chips you’ll need to reach the final table in contention for the win (an average stack or better). Winning the tournament is a step-by-step procedure. First you have to make the money. Then you have to get to the final table. Finally, you have to be the lone survivor at that table. You can’t win a tournament with 60 players left no matter how big your stack size is at that time.’

‘An interesting phenomenon occurs almost immediately after the money is reached. Play loosens up considerably. Since I like to play against the flow, often I will play conservatively in the aftermath of the first payouts. I’ll focus on opponents who begin pushing their marginal hands and risking bust out. These players often look at the cash they are assured of as found money. They begin to gamble. I’ll give these opponents action when I have good hands, but I won’t gamble. I’ll look at the prize pool list to determine where the value is because prize pool distributions differ percentage wise from one tournament to the next.’

I believe Ted is spot on. As you approach the bubble period, be observant of which players are tightening up. Aside from folding frequently, they may turn to look at the stacks at adjacent tables. Some even wander about eyeballing short stacks. In addition, players who are trying to coast into the money often take inordinate time making decisions (unless play has reached the hand-by-hand stage, a procedure that negates stalling tactics). These coasters are prime candidates to be moved off marginal hands – and even relatively good ones such as A-J and 9-9. Bet into them freely, as you will get them to fold all but premium hands. Even if they possess a strong hand such as A-Q, you can often take them off their holding when they call, but miss the flop. Their top priority is to sneak into the money. Of course, if a coaster bets or calls pre-flop, and big cards appear on the flop, be wary. He or she may have made two pair or top pair with top kicker.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the big-stack players are usually looking to steal from the mediumstack opponents. They generally fear wars with other large stacks and they try to avoid confrontations with very small stacks, knowing the owners may choose to take a stand rather than getting so short that they will have no raising leverage. If a big stack player is pounding almost every pot, I’ll test him with a re-raise. He can’t hold A-K or J-J every hand.

While you should be conscious of how your opponents are reacting to the payout structure, never lose sight of playing more aggressively from late position and incorporating your adversaries’ overall tendencies into your bubble strategy. For example, let’s say you are playing in a three-day WSOP event where the bubble period kicks in seven hours into day two. A player has been raising frequently all day. Now, approaching the first payouts and sporting a medium/large stack, he raises a few times. Well, this leopard hasn’t really changed his spots. But, if the same player had been raising infrequently all day, and now begins raising habitually, then he is probably a solid, experienced player who realises opponents will give way as the money comes into play, rather than risk getting hooked into a big hand and busting out with nothing to show for two long days of work.

ONLINE MAGNIFICATION

During the bubble period, everything seems to happen in an exaggerated fashion when playing online. Aggressive players with deep stacks become hyperaggressive. Small stacks often hit the auto-fold button with regularity. The table bully seems to raise almost every hand. When the bubble is burst, chips enter pots from all directions.

A popular online offering is the sit&go tournament. A typical sit&go is played ten-handed with 50% of the prize pool going to the winner, 30% to the runner-up and 20% to the third-place finisher. This type of one-table tournament provides excellent practice for playing short-handed and is useful for improving your bubble time strategy because you will often encounter bubble situations when entering sit&go events.

My overall sit&go strategy is to play snugly for the first few levels. I observe my opponents and watch several get knocked out. Of course, if I pick up a good hand, I play it aggressively. Typically, when the fourth level begins, play will be six-handed or seven-handed. I will become more active, especially when in late position. Putting pressure on the blinds becomes more meaningful and lucrative as the blinds accelerate. When I reach the bubble stage, I will evaluate my relative chip count. If possessing a big stack, I’ll bully those that are trying to make the money by coasting. If I’m a short stack, I’ll try to pick up chips with aggressive play. I want my opponents to know that I won’t roll over just to coast into third place on fumes. I will make moves while my stack is still substantial enough to threaten my opponents. Once we are down to three players, I play against the flow of my opponents. If they are tight, I play fast. If my adversaries are aggressive, I set traps for their overbets and pounce when they show any weakness.

A TIP FROM THE TOP

At the 2006 WSOP, while being besieged by autograph hounds and playing for a $12,000,000 prize, Daniel Negreanu found time during a ten-minute break to summarise bubble play: ‘The bubble is the point in a tournament that basically separates the men from the boys. When players are just shy of reaching the money we find out who is there to win the tournament and who is just there to survive. The top players get really aggressive, while the less experienced guys clam up and play tight. The good players take advantage of the tight players as the bubble approaches.’