Folding Big Hands

Over the last year or so I’ve tried to change my basic approach to life and poker. Instead of letting poker run my life as per any standard addiction, I’ve tried to use poker to enable me to get a bit more from life. By this I mean, I’ve tried to stop chasing major buy-in events on TV, such as the European Poker Tour, WSOP and WPT. Apart from anything else they keep sending me skint, which isn’t too good for the old Karma.

Instead, I resolved to try and get to new destinations around the world where they just happen to have poker on the menu along with all the other attractions. I specifically had places like Macau, Morocco, Mexico, Panama and Thailand in mind. I’ve also been fond of central and eastern European capitals like Prague, Bucharest, Budapest and Kiev.

As per all addicts I have only achieved half of my objectives but I’m more than happy with the little Marrakech loop I’m stuck in at the moment. I’ve achieved several of the destinations and have Cyprus, Cancun, Agadir and of course WPT Marrakech all on the itinerary for what’s left of 2009. As a result my quality of life has improved 100% this year although I perhaps haven’t been in the spotlight so much.

The real reason for changing my approach is slightly different though as I mentioned earlier. Most of the longer lasting professional poker players all have one major thing in common. It’s not patience, discipline, mathematical aptitude or ESP reading ability. It’s an incredible drive and will to win. When we lose it hurts. When I get knocked out of a big EPT or other main event, I sulk, I get depressed and I’m not good company.

KARMA CHAMELEON

I suppose if I had Julian Thew’s record in EPTs or Roland De Wolfe’s record in all major events then maybe my Karma would be indestructible, but I’m not so sure. As it is, I’ve run worse in EPTs than any other form of poker. I still haven’t cashed in one. I’ve bubbled London & Dublin and been two off the bubble in Baden. I’ve flopped set under set three times in the first two levels and run Kings into Aces twice.

Meanwhile, I’ve destroyed the £20 comps in The Cincinnati Club and run like God in the final of the Poccer team tourney, where the first prize was £600 which had to be divided six ways. However, I don’t expect any sympathy. Just as well as I’m not likely to get any from the many players I’ve dogged on my way to major victories in The Vic and GUKPT Manchester.

The important thing for me is to analyse what is going on and to react accordingly. Having discussed trying to get away from a big hand last month, this article is in a similar vein. The problem with the EPT exits I have mentioned is predominantly the size of the starting stacks. With only a 10k starting stack it is practically impossible to get away from a stack in the first level. Although, I do remember all my instincts screaming stop at me during a Copenhagen EPT.

The flop came down 10-5-2 in a pot that had been raised by Xuyen ‘Bad Girl’ Pham. I made a weak half-pot bet of 300 with my set of fives and was called. Xuyen then hit a set of sevens on the turn. I led out for another half-pot bet of 700 and found the raise I was looking for. I raised to 6,000, only for Pham to insta-move all-in on me. I didn’t fancy her for Aces and the old ESP was screaming ‘you are beat here boyo’.

However, having committed three quarters of my stack to the pot, it was a cross your fingers no-brain call. Interestingly, with a 30k starting stack we have a much more difficult decision. It is, of course, now possible to pass. More difficult decisions mean that we have a much more skilful poker game. This is why I’ve been saying for ages that decent starting stacks are more important than super-slow structures. Being given starting stacks of 3,000 to 5,000 in the WSOP lead-up events is nothing short of a joke. The events don’t deserve the status and esteem that they are currently regarded with.

So, this month’s article is meant to be about a couple of the biggest mistakes I may have made in major events over the last few years. I’ve specifically chosen two hands in major events where the starting stacks are big, it is early in the event, and there is plenty of potential for good or bad poker decisions.

This year I flew out to Vegas specifically and only to play the 2009 WSOP Main Event. It was my main focus of attention and I was fully prepared and raring to go. However, I managed to draw an exceptionally tight starting table. The action was very slow, and I just couldn’t get going. I also managed to flop a flush under flush and had somehow skilfully manoeuvred my stack down from its initial 30k to 80% of its former glory.

I had 24k when thankfully they broke the table of boredom. My table had still to lose a player but things were a bit different in the killings fields of my new home. Chip stack skyscrapers surrounded me as I sat down to the first hand at 200/400 (no ante).

Mr Big Stack was under the gun (UTG) and raised to 1,100 as I looked down at pocket Kings (clearly the best hand I had seen all day). I was UTG+1 and re-raised to 3k after first giving his big stack the once over. However while looking right, I had forgotten to look left as I crossed the road. Kristy Gazes was UTG+2 and swiftly sprayed out 9k from her stack of 45k. This was a re-re-raise with nine players left to act behind her.

This was the main event and two players had already expressed a major interest in the pot. In my tiny mind this could not be a move, this had to be a major hand. Everyone passed around to the initial UTG, who gave it a few seconds face saving delay before joining them in the muck. I was left alone with my thoughts and unfortunately without my ESP.

I looked at her and she smiled back. Possibly a ‘tell’ but this decision was really down to mathematics and logic. She clearly had a hand. I really don’t think she could do this with Jacks or less. This is the WSOP main event! For Vegas-based Full Tilt Red Pros, such as Kristy, this is the Holy Grail. Surely she wouldn’t do this with A-K? Would she do it with Queens? I wasn’t sure.

My analysis was something like 50% chance she has Aces, 30% Queens, 20% the other Kings. So the logic is do I want to coin-flip at this stage of the tourney? Is winning a pot of just over 50k worth risking elimination? If I pass Kings (can I really pass Kings?) at this stage I will still have 21k and the blinds are still only 200/400.

I confirmed my worst fears that I am now becoming too tight and eventually deposited them in the muck. And the smiling happy-go-lucky Kristy promptly tells me she had pocket Queens and ‘never passes pocket Queens’… D’oh. Did I make the wrong decision or the right decision at the wrong time? I don’t know. I’m getting old. I do know that I am seriously worried that I may get too scared to put my chips in the middle. Vive le calling station.

Another major pass that haunted me for most of 2008 was also against the fairer sex. I don’t remember previously playing against Irina Liepina, but I was drawn on the same starting table as Steve Jelinek’s better half in the Bahamas EPT at the start of last year. We had started with 20,000 in chips and I hadn’t made much progress in either direction. Again the blinds are 150/300 and my brummie neighbour had limped in mid-position. I raised to 900 on the button with A-10 offsuit and she was the only caller.

The flop also came A-10-8 without a flush draw. She checked and I tried to feint a weak bet of 1,000. It worked and I was re-raised another 2,800. Now I didn’t mess about and promptly had half my stack in the middle, only for Irina to move all-in. My brain was screaming that she had made a set of eights. I suppose it was possible she may have A-8 or could have played pocket Aces very sneakily but both looked very unlikely.

Eventually, after an eternity of doubt, I passed my top two-pair and left myself with 10k. She later informed me that she had eights & tens. Although in both cases I passed the worse hand, this hand seems a clearer error on my part, for a couple of reasons. Firstly, I have committed a lot more chips in this scenario. I have wasted half my stack and now have less than half the average stack size. In the earlier scenario with Kristy, I had committed less than 15% of my stack and had plenty of time to recover. I did in fact build back up to 90k at one point on day 2.

The other slightly different point concerns tourney strategy. If I had won the pot with Irina I would have had 40k at a very early stage and would have been one of the front runners. In a field of 2,000 my odds of making the final table may have been as low as 20/1 with the sort of stack at this time. By passing the hand and leaving myself with 10k, I was probably 300/1 to make the final table.

It was unlikely I was drawing completely dead. If Irina had a set of eights then I still have a meagre four outs. But I think the combination of doubt, suck out chance and tourney strategy combined, mean that this is a 100% call situation, regardless of instincts. The one thing that stands out among this drivel is that I am clearly useless with the ladies. Maybe I need more practice.